1. He taputapu tāpiri hiko ngā puranga utu mō ngā waka hiko hou, ā, he rerekētanga te whanaketanga i te kāinga me tāwāhi
1.1. He taputapu tāpiri hiko te puranga utu mō ngā waka hiko hou
Ko te puranga utu he taputapu mō ngā waka hiko hou hei tāpiri i te hiko. Ki ngā waka hiko hou, he rite te teihana penehīni ki te whakakī hinu i ngā waka. He ngāwari ake te whakatakotoranga me ngā whakamahinga o ngā puranga utu i ngā teihana penehīni, ā, he nui ake hoki ngā momo. E ai ki te āhua o te tāutanga, ka taea te wehewehe ki ngā puranga utu e mau ana ki te pakitara, ngā puranga utu poutū, ngā puranga utu neke, me ētahi atu, e tika ana mō ngā āhua rerekē o te papaanga;
E ai ki te whakarōpūtanga o ngā horopaki whakamahinga, ka taea te wehewehe ki ngā pou utu tūmatanui, ngā pou utu motuhake, ngā pou utu tūmataiti, me ētahi atu. Ka whakaratohia e ngā pou utu tūmatanui ngā ratonga utu tūmatanui mō te marea, ā, ko ngā pou utu motuhake he mea mahi noa ki roto i te kamupene pou hanga, ko ngā pou utu tūmataiti ka tāutahia ki roto i ngā pou utu tūmataiti. Ngā wāhi waka, kāore e tuwhera ki te marea;
E ai ki te whakarōpūtanga o te tere utu (mana utu), ka taea te wehewehe ki ngā puranga utu tere me ngā puranga utu puhoi; e ai ki te whakarōpūtanga o te hangarau utu, ka taea te wehewehe ki ngā puranga utu DC me ngā puranga utu AC. I te nuinga o te wā, he nui ake te mana utu me te tere utu tere o ngā puranga utu DC, ko ngā puranga utu AC ia he puhoi ake te utu.
I te Hononga o Amerika, ka wehea ngā pou utu ki ngā taumata rerekē e ai ki te mana, ko te Taumata 1 me teTaumata 2he puranga utu AC te nuinga, e tika ana mō te nuinga o ngā waka hiko hou, engari kāore te utu tere awaawa e tika ana mō ngā waka hiko hou katoa, ā, he maha ngā momo i ahu mai i ngā paerewa atanga rerekē pērā i a J1772, CHAdeMO, Tesla, me ētahi atu.
I tēnei wā, kāore anō kia kotahi te paerewa atanga utu i te ao. Ko ngā paerewa atanga matua ko te GB/T o Haina, te CHAOmedo o Hapani, te IEC 62196 o te Kotahitanga o Ūropi, te SAE J1772 o te Hononga o Amerika, me te IEC 62196.
1.2. Ko te tipu haere o ngā waka hiko hou me te āwhina kaupapa here e akiaki ana i te whanaketanga pumau o ngā pou utu i tōku whenua
Kei te tere te whanaketanga o te umanga waka hiko hou o tōku whenua. Kei te haere tonu te whanaketanga o ngā waka hiko hou o tōku whenua, inā koa mai i te tau 2020, kua tere te pikinga o te reiti urunga o ngā waka hiko hou, ā, i te tau 2022 kua neke atu i te 25% te reiti urunga o ngā waka hiko hou. Ka piki haere tonu hoki te maha o ngā waka hiko hou. E ai ki ngā tatauranga a te Manatū Haumaru ā-Iwi, ka eke te ōwehenga o ngā waka hiko hou ki te tapeke o ngā waka i te tau 2022 ki te 4.1%.
Kua whakaputa te kāwanatanga i ētahi kaupapa here hei tautoko i te whanaketanga o te umanga pou utu. Kei te tipu haere tonu te hoko me te mana o ngā waka hiko hou i tōku whenua, ā, e ai ki tēnā, kei te whānui haere tonu te hiahia mō ngā whare utu. I runga i tēnei whakaaro, kua whakaputa te kāwanatanga me ngā tari ā-rohe e tika ana i ētahi kaupapa here hei whakatairanga kaha i te whanaketanga o te umanga pou utu, tae atu ki te tautoko kaupapa here me te ārahi, ngā tautoko pūtea, me ngā whāinga hanga.
I te tipu haere tonu o ngā waka hiko hou me te whakaohooho kaupapa here, kei te piki haere tonu te maha o ngā pou utu i tōku whenua. I te marama o Āperira 2023, ko te maha o ngā pou utu i tōku whenua he 6.092 miriona. I roto i ēnei, kua piki ake te maha o ngā pou utu tūmatanui mā te 52% i ia tau ki te 2.025 miriona waeine, ā, ko ngā pou utu DC te 42%, ā,Ngā puranga utu ACi eke ki te 58%. Nā te mea he maha ngā wā ka huihuia ngā puranga utu tūmataiti me ngā waka, he nui ake te tipu o te mana pupuri. He tere, me te pikinga tau-ki-te-tau o te 104% ki te 4.067 miriona waeine.
Ko te ōwehenga waka-ki-pou i tōku whenua he 2.5:1, ā, ko te ōwehenga waka-ki-pou a te iwi whānui he 7.3:1. Ko te ōwehenga waka-ki-pou, arā, ko te ōwehenga o ngā waka hiko hou ki ngā pou utu. Mai i te tirohanga o te rarangi taonga, i te mutunga o te tau 2022, ko te ōwehenga o ngā waka ki ngā pou i tōku whenua ka 2.5:1, ā, kei te heke haere te ia whānui, arā, kei te whakapai tonuhia ngā whare utu mō ngā waka hiko hou. I roto i ēnei, ko te ōwehenga o ngā waka tūmatanui ki ngā pou he 7.3:1, kua piki haere haere mai i te mutunga o te tau 2020. Ko te take he tere te tipu o ngā hoko o ngā waka hiko hou, ā, kua nui ake te tere tipu i te ahunga whakamua o te hanganga o ngā pou utu tūmatanui; ko te ōwehenga o ngā waka tūmataiti ki ngā pou he 3.8:1, e whakaatu ana i te heke haere haere. Ko te nuinga o te ia nā ngā āhuatanga pēnei i te whakatairanga whai hua o ngā kaupapa here ā-motu hei whakatairanga i te hanganga o ngā pou utu tūmataiti i roto i ngā hapori noho.
Mō te wehewehenga o ngā puranga utu tūmatanui, ko te maha o ngā puranga DC tūmatanui: ko te maha o ngā puranga AC tūmatanui ≈ 4:6, nō reira ko te ōwehenga o ngā puranga DC tūmatanui he 17.2:1 pea, he teitei ake tēnei i te ōwehenga o ngā puranga AC tūmatanui o te 12.6:1.
Ko te ōwehenga waka-ki-te-pouaka e whakaatu ana i te ia o te whakapainga haere tonu i te katoa. Mai i te tirohanga haere tonu, nā te mea kāore ngā pou utu hou o ia marama, inā koa ngā pou utu tūmatanui hou, e pā tata ana ki ngā hokonga waka hiko hou, he nui ngā piki me ngā heke o aua pou, ā, ka arahi ki ngā piki me ngā heke o te ōwehenga pou waka hou o ia marama. Nō reira, ka whakamahia ia hauwhā hei tatau i te ōwehenga waka-ki-te-pouaka, arā, te rahinga hoko o ngā waka hiko hou kua tāpirihia: te maha o ngā pou utu kua tāpirihia. I te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2023, ko te ōwehenga waka-ki-te-pouaka kua tāpirihia ko te 2.5:1, e whakaatu ana i te ia heke haere haere tonu. I roto i ēnei, ko te ōwehenga waka-ki-te-pouaka tūmatanui hou ko te 9.8:1, ā, ko te ōwehenga waka-ki-te-pouaka tūmataiti kua tāpirihia ko te 3.4:1, e whakaatu ana hoki i te ia whakapainga nui.
1.3. Kāore i tino tika te hanganga o ngā whare utu hiko ki tāwāhi, ā, he nui te pūmanawa tipu
1.3.1. Ūropi: He rerekē te whanaketanga o te pūngao hou, engari he āputa kei roto i ngā puranga utu
Kei te tere te whanaketanga o ngā waka pūngao hou i Ūropi, ā, he nui te reiti urunga. Ko Ūropi tētahi o ngā rohe e tino aro nui ana ki te tiaki taiao i te ao. Nā ngā kaupapa here me ngā ture i ārahi, kei te tere te whanaketanga o te umanga waka pūngao hou o Ūropi, ā, he teitei te reiti urunga o te pūngao hou. Kua eke ki te 21.2%.
He nui te ōwehenga o ngā waka ki ngā pou i Ūropi, ā, he nui te āputa i roto i ngā whare utu. E ai ki ngā tatauranga a te IEA, ko te ōwehenga o ngā pou waka tūmatanui i Ūropi ka tata ki te 14.4:1 i te tau 2022, ā, ko ngā pou utu tere tūmatanui ka 13% noa iho. Ahakoa kei te tere te whanaketanga o te mākete waka hiko hou o Ūropi, he āhua whakamuri te hanganga o ngā whare utu e rite ana, ā, he raruraru anō hoki pērā i te iti o ngā whare utu me te puhoi o te tere utu.
Kāore i te ōrite te whanaketanga o te pūngao hou i waenga i ngā whenua Pākehā, ā, he rerekē anō hoki te ōwehenga o ngā waka tūmatanui ki ngā pou. Mō te wehewehenga, ko Nōwei me Huitene te hunga e nui rawa ana te urunga mai o te pūngao hou, e 73.5% me te 49.1% i te tau 2022, ā, ko te ōwehenga o ngā waka tūmatanui ki ngā pou i roto i ngā whenua e rua he teitei ake i te toharite o Ūropi, e 32.8:1 me te 25.0: 1.
Ko Tiamana, ko te United Kingdom, me Wīwī ngā whenua hokohoko waka nui rawa atu i Ūropi, ā, he teitei hoki te reiti urunga o te pūngao hou. I te tau 2022, ka eke te reiti urunga o te pūngao hou ki Tiamana, te United Kingdom, me Wīwī ki te 28.2%, 20.3%, me te 17.3%, ia, ā, ko te ōwehenga o ngā waka tūmatanui-puranga ka 24.5:1, 18.8:1, me te 11.8:1.
Mō ngā kaupapa here, kua whakauru haere tonu te Kotahitanga o Ūropi me te maha o ngā whenua Ūropi i ngā kaupapa here whakatenatena, ngā kaupapa here tautoko utu rānei e pā ana ki te hanganga o ngā whare utu hei whakaoho i te whanaketanga o ngā whare utu.
1.3.2. Te Hononga o Amerika: Me tere te whakawhanake i ngā whare utu hiko, ā, me mahi tahi te kāwanatanga me ngā umanga.
Hei tētahi o ngā mākete motuka nui rawa atu o te ao, kua puhoi ake te ahunga whakamua o te Hononga o Amerika i roto i te mara o te pūngao hou i a Haina me Ūropi. I te tau 2022, ka neke atu i te 1 miriona ngā hokonga o ngā waka pūngao hou, me te reiti whakaurunga tata ki te 7.0%.
I taua wā anō, he puhoi hoki te whanaketanga o te mākete pou utu tūmatanui i te Hononga o Amerika, ā, kāore anō kia oti ngā whare utu tūmatanui. I te tau 2022, ko te ōwehenga o ngā waka tūmatanui ki ngā pou i te Hononga o Amerika ka 23.1:1, ā, ko te 21.9% o ēnei ko ngā pou utu tere tūmatanui.
Kua whakaarohia hoki e te Hononga o Amerika me ētahi kawanatanga he kaupapa here whakaohooho mō ngā whakaurunga utu, tae atu ki tētahi kaupapa a te kāwanatanga o Amerika ki te hanga i te 500,000 pou utu e $7.5 piriona te tapeke. Ko te tapeke e wātea ana ki ngā kawanatanga i raro i te kaupapa NEVI he $615 miriona i te tau pūtea 2022 me te $885 miriona i te tau pūtea 2023. He mea tika kia mōhiotia ko ngā pou utu e whai wāhi ana ki te kaupapa a te kāwanatanga ā-motu o Amerika me hanga i roto i te Hononga o Amerika (tae atu ki ngā tukanga hanga pēnei i te whare me te huihuinga), ā, i te Hūrae 2024, me ahu mai i te Hononga o Amerika te iti rawa 55% o ngā utu wāhanga katoa.
Haunga ngā kaupapa here whakatenatena, kua kaha hoki ngā kamupene pou utu me ngā kamupene waka ki te whakatairanga i te hanganga o ngā whare utu, tae atu ki te whakatuwheratanga a Tesla i tētahi wāhanga o te whatunga utu, me ChargePoint, BP me ētahi atu kamupene waka e mahi tahi ana ki te whakatū me te hanga pou.
He maha hoki ngā kamupene pou utu huri noa i te ao e haumi ana ki te Hononga o Amerika ki te whakatū tari matua hou, ki ngā whare hou, ki ngā raina whakaputa rānei hei whakaputa pou utu i te Hononga o Amerika.
2. I te tere o te whanaketanga o te umanga, kua ngāwari ake te mākete puranga utu ki tāwāhi
2.1. Ko te arai ki te hanga kei roto i te waeine utu, ā, ko te arai ki te haere ki tāwāhi kei roto i te tiwhikete paerewa.
2.1.1. He iti ngā ārai o te puranga hiko AC, ā, ko te uho o te puranga hiko DC ko te waeine utu.
He iti ngā arai hanga o ngā puranga utu AC, ā, ko te waeine utu i roto iNgā puranga utu DCKo te wāhanga matua. Mai i te tirohanga o te kaupapa mahi me te hanganga o te hanganga, ka whakatinanahia te hurihanga AC/DC o ngā waka hiko hou e te rihi kei roto i te waka i te wā e utu ana te AC, nō reira he tino māmā te hanganga o te puranga utu AC, ā, he iti te utu. I roto i te utu DC, me whakaoti te tukanga hurihanga mai i te AC ki te DC i roto i te puranga utu, nō reira me whakatinana e te waeine utu. Ka pā te waeine utu ki te pumau o te ara iahiko, te mahi me te haumaru o te puranga katoa. Ko te wāhanga matua o te puranga utu DC, ā, ko tētahi o ngā wāhanga he nui rawa ngā arai hangarau. Ko ngā kaiwhakarato waeine utu ko Huawei, Infy power, Sinexcel, me ētahi atu.
2.1.2. He whakaritenga nui te whiwhinga i te tiwhikete paerewa o tāwāhi mō ngā pakihi o tāwāhi
Kei ngā mākete o tāwāhi ngā arai tiwhikete. Kua whakaputa a Haina, a Ūropi, me te Hononga o Amerika i ngā paerewa tiwhikete e tika ana mō ngā pou utu, ā, ko te whiwhinga tiwhikete he whakaritenga matua mō te urunga ki te mākete. Kei roto i ngā paerewa tiwhikete a Haina ko te CQC, me ētahi atu, engari kāore he paerewa tiwhikete ā-ture mō tēnei wā. Kei roto i ngā paerewa tiwhikete i te Hononga o Amerika ko te UL, FCC, Energy Star, me ētahi atu. Ko ngā paerewa tiwhikete i te Kotahitanga o Ūropi ko te tiwhikete CE te nuinga, ā, kua whakaarohia hoki e ētahi whenua Ūropi ā rātou ake paerewa tiwhikete wehewehe. I te nuinga o te wā, ko te uaua o ngā paerewa tiwhikete ko te Hononga o Amerika > Ūropi > Haina.
2.2. Ā-Whare: Te nui o te kukū o te pito mahi, te whakataetae nui i roto i te hononga puranga katoa, me te tipu haere tonu o te wāhi
He nui te kukū o ngā kaiwhakahaere pou utu ā-whare, ā, he maha ngā kaiwhakataetae i roto i te hononga pou utu katoa, ā, he marara noa te whakatakotoranga. Mai i te tirohanga a ngā kaiwhakahaere pou utu, tata ki te 40% o te mākete pou utu tūmatanui a Waea me Xingxing Charging, ā, he nui te kukū o te mākete, CR5=69.1%, CR10=86.9%, ko te mākete pou DC tūmatanui a CR5=80.7%, ko te mākete pou whakawhitiwhiti tūmatanui a CR5=65.8%. Ina tirohia te mākete katoa mai i raro ki runga, kua hangaia hoki e ngā kaiwhakahaere he tauira rerekē, pērā i a Waea, Xingxing Charging, me ētahi atu, e whakatakoto ana i te taha whakarunga me te taha whakararo o te mekameka ahumahi tae atu ki te tukanga hanga katoa, ā, kei reira anō hoki pērā i a Xiaoju Charging, Cloud Quick Charging, me ētahi atu e whakamahi ana i te tauira rawa mārama e whakarato ana i ngā otinga teihana utu tuatoru mō te kaihanga pou katoa, te kaiwhakahaere rānei. He maha ngā kaihanga o ngā pou katoa i Haina. Haunga ngā tauira whakauru poutū pērā i a Waea me Star Charging, he marara noa te hanganga pou katoa.
E matapaetia ana ka eke te maha o ngā puranga utu ā-iwi i tōku whenua ki te 7.6 miriona i te tau 2030. Ina whakaarohia te whanaketanga o te umanga waka hiko hou o tōku whenua me te whakamahere kaupapa here o te whenua, ngā kawanatanga me ngā tāone, e matapaetia ana i te tau 2025 me te 2030, ka eke te maha o ngā puranga utu ā-iwi i Haina ki te 4.4 miriona me te 7.6 miriona, ā, i te tau 2022-2025E me te 2025E. Ko te CAGR o -2030E he 35.7% me te 11.6% ia. I taua wā anō, ka piki haere te ōwehenga o ngā puranga utu tere ā-iwi i roto i ngā puranga ā-iwi. E matapaetia ana i te tau 2030, ka 47.4% o ngā puranga utu ā-iwi he puranga utu tere, ka whakapai ake i te wheako kaiwhakamahi.
2.3. Ūropi: Kei te tere haere te hanga o ngā pou utu, ā, kei te piki haere te ōwehenga o ngā pou utu tere
Hei tauira, ko te UK te mākete e kukū ana ngā kaiwhakahaere pou utu he iti iho i tērā o Haina. Hei tētahi o ngā whenua nui o te pūngao hou i Ūropi, ko te maha o ngā pou utu tūmatanui i te UK ka eke ki te 9.9% i te tau 2022. Mai i te tirohanga a te mākete pou utu o Peretānia, ko te kukū whānui o te mākete he iti iho i tērā o te mākete Haina. I roto i te mākete pou utu tūmatanui, he nui ake te wāhi mākete o ubitricity, Pod Point, bp pulse, me ētahi atu, CR5=45.3%. Ko ngā pou utu tere tūmatanui me ngā pou utu tino tere. I roto i a rātou, ko InstaVolt, bp pulse, me Tesla Supercharger (tae atu ki ngā mea tuwhera me ngā mea motuhake ki a Tesla) neke atu i te 10%, ā, ko CR5=52.7%. I te taha hanga pou katoa, ko ngā kaitākaro mākete matua ko ABB, Siemens, Schneider me ētahi atu kamupene ahumahi nunui i roto i te mara o te hiko, me ngā kamupene pūngao e whakatinana ana i te whakatakotoranga o te umanga pou utu mā te hoko. Hei tauira, i hokona e BP tētahi o ngā kamupene utu waka hiko nui rawa atu i te UK i te tau 2018. 1. I hokona e Chargemaster me Shell a ubitricity me ētahi atu i te tau 2021 (he kamupene nui a BP me Shell i te umanga hinu).
I te tau 2030, e matapaetia ana ka eke te maha o ngā pou utu ā-iwi i Ūropi ki te 2.38 miriona, ā, ka piki haere tonu te ōwehenga o ngā pou utu tere. E ai ki ngā whakatau tata, i te tau 2025 me te tau 2030, ka eke te maha o ngā pou utu ā-iwi i Ūropi ki te 1.2 miriona me te 2.38 miriona, ā, ko te CAGR o te 2022-2025E me te 2025E-2030E ka 32.8% me te 14.7% ia. ka nui rawa atu, engari kei te piki haere hoki te ōwehenga o ngā pou utu tere ā-iwi. E matapaetia ana i te tau 2030, ka 20.2% o ngā pou utu ā-iwi he pou utu tere.
2.4. Te Hononga o Amerika: He ngāwari ake te wāhi mākete, ā, ko ngā waitohu ā-rohe te rangatira i tēnei wā
He nui ake te kukū o te mākete whatunga utu i te Hononga o Amerika i tērā i Haina me Ūropi, ā, ko ngā waitohu ā-rohe te nuinga. Mai i te tirohanga o te maha o ngā pae whatunga utu, ko ChargePoint te rangatira me te ōwehenga o te 54.9%, ā, whai muri ko Tesla me te 10.9% (tae atu ki te Taumata 2 me te DC Fast), ā, whai muri ko Blink me SemaCharge, he kamupene Amerikana hoki. Mai i te tirohanga o te maha o ngā tauranga utu EVSE, he teitei ake tonu a ChargePoint i ētahi atu kamupene, ko te 39.3%, ā, whai muri ko Tesla, ko te 23.2% (tae atu ki te Taumata 2 me te DC Fast), ā, whai muri ko ngā kamupene Amerikana te nuinga.
I te tau 2030, e matapaetia ana ka eke te maha o ngā pou utu ā-iwi i te Hononga o Amerika ki te 1.38 miriona, ā, ka piki haere tonu te ōwehenga o ngā pou utu tere. E ai ki ngā whakatau tata, i te tau 2025 me te 2030, ka eke te maha o ngā pou utu ā-iwi i te Hononga o Amerika ki te 550,000 me te 1.38 miriona, ā, ko te CAGR o te 2022-2025E me te 2025E-2030E ka 62.6% me te 20.2%, ia. He rite ki te āhuatanga i Ūropi, ko ngā pou utu puhoi tonu te nuinga, engari ka piki haere tonu te ōwehenga o ngā pou utu tere. E matapaetia ana i te tau 2030, 27.5% o ngā pou utu ā-iwi ka waiho hei pou utu tere.
2.5. Tātaitanga o te Wāhi Mākete
I runga i te tātaritanga o runga ake nei o te umanga pou utu tūmatanui i Haina, i Ūropi, me te Hononga o Amerika, e whakaarohia ana ka piki ake te maha o ngā pou utu tūmatanui i te CAGR i roto i te wā 2022-2025E, ā, ko te maha o ngā pou utu hou e tāpirihia ana i ia tau ka riro mai mā te tango i te maha o ngā pupuri. Mō te utu mō ia wae hua, ko te utu mō ngā pou utu puhoi ā-rohe he 2,000-4,000 yuan/huinga, ā, ko ngā utu ki tāwāhi he 300-600 tāra/huinga (arā, 2,100-4,300 yuan/huinga). Ko te utu mō ngā pou utu tere 120kW o te whare he 50,000-70,000 yuan/huinga, ko te utu mō ngā pou utu tere 50-350kW o tāwāhi ka eke ki te 30,000-150,000 tāra/huinga, ā, ko te utu mō ngā pou utu tere 120kW he tata ki te 50,000-60,000 tāra/huinga. E matapaetia ana i te tau 2025, ka eke te mākete katoa o ngā pou utu tūmatanui i Haina, i Ūropi, me te Hononga o Amerika ki te 71.06 piriona yuan.
3. Tātaritanga o ngā kamupene matua
Ko ngā kamupene o tāwāhi i roto i te umanga pou utu ko ChargePoint, EVBox, Blink, BP Pulse, Shell, ABB, Siemens, me ētahi atu. Ko ngā kamupene o roto ko Autel, Sinexcel,CHINAEVSE, TGOOD, Gresgying, me ētahi atu. I roto i ēnei, kua ahu whakamua hoki ngā kamupene poupou ā-rohe ki te haere ki tāwāhi. Hei tauira, kua whiwhi ētahi hua o CHINAEVSE i te tiwhikete UL, CSA, Energy Star i te United States me te tiwhikete CE, UKCA, MID i te Kotahitanga o Ūropi. Kua uru atu a CHINAEVSE ki te Rārangi BP o ngā kaiwhakarato me ngā kaihanga poupou utu.
Te wā tuku: Hōngongoi-10-2023